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Any short term win rates of around 60% or higher are simply due to blind, short-term luck.For instance, last year (2016) in the first season using a new NFL play-by-play model, Dr.
I often hear amateur gamblers erroneously claim that winning 55% of games isn’t even enough to beat juice.
As demonstrated above, a bettor only needs to win 52.4% to break even, and a 55% bettor will be very profitable in the long run if they pursue an optimal money management strategy.
In their 2007 two page article about my handicapping success, the Wall Street Journal wrote, “…fewer than 100 people can sustain (win rates of 55%) over time.
Most of them belong to professional betting syndicates that hire teams of statisticians, wager millions every week and keep their operations secret.” Touts often claim to be able to hit 60% or higher, but as I explain in my essay on Bayesian Probability, anyone who tells you that their long term expected winning percentage is higher than 60% is deluding themselves.
Investing $10,000 into the stock market for a year and earning a 10% return is considered a great investment – but your return winning a modest 54% of your sports bets would trounce that return.
My picks have yielded a much higher risk adjusted return than the stock market.
Obviously, the variance from season to season is formidable, but as anyone who had a significant amount invested in stocks or real estate in 2008 can tell you, such swings aren’t limited to sports.
In the long run, my edge in what I do is far greater than the edge that you could hope to gain in any other speculative market.
If I play 2.0% of my initial bankroll per bet, or 1.0% per Star, (i.e.
flat betting) then my expected return during football season (5 months) is 22.0%.