The lead author of the study is Professor Jianliang Wang an energy systems expert from the China University of Petroleum’s (CUP) School of Business Administration, along with co-authors Jiang-Xuan Feng and Lian-Yong Feng of the CUP; as well as Jiang-Xuan Feng of the University of Bedfordshire Business School and Hui Qu of the CNPC.The study, which says its aim is “to help policymakers better understand the future long-term supply of China’s fossil fuel resources”, conducts a thorough review of the scientific literature forecasting China’s oil, gas and coal production.Tags: A Well Written EssayHopes And Dreams Essay Of Mice And MenEssays On Steroid EffectsIdentify Audience EssayMedical School Supplemental Application EssaysJuice Bar Business Plan Sample
There are considerable differences in previous forecasts for a peak of conventional oil production, ranging from 2002 to 2037.
One of the main causes for such different forecasts, the authors find, is a failure to distinguish properly between conventional and unconventional resources.
Even this scenario could be an overestimate as actual gas production will likely be constrained by “water issues [which] may be the most significant constraining factor for China shale’s gas development.”China suffers from “high” average exposure to water stress over its shale oil and gas area, the study observes.
Yet China’s gas demand is expected to increase so rapidly, that even “impressive” production increases from unconventional gas resources will not be sufficient to meet demand.
An oil reserve is said to ‘peak’ when it reaches maximum production at a point when about half the reserve is depleted.
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After this it becomes geophysically more difficult and economically more costly to extract from the reserve, leading production to gradually decline.
The study’s core finding is that China is about to become a post-peak nation.
China’s conventional oil production most likely already peaked in 2014, and the country’s unconventional oil production is likely to peak in 2021.
The study does not argue that peak oil means China is running out of fossil fuels — rather as conventional fossil fuels decline, there is an accelerating shift to more expensive unconventional fuels.
While these might exist in abundance, the economic costs of exploitation are far higher, leaving some economically unrecoverable.