Decision Support System For Risk Management A Case Study

Decision Support System For Risk Management A Case Study-52
The Toyamaru typhoon destroyed approximately 300 000 m (2003) statistically analyzed the data of abiotic damaged stands from forest insurance databases and found that planted forests older than 41 years are more likely to incur wind damage.

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GALES is a mechanistic/empirical model developed to calculate the critical wind speed (CWS), leading to overturning or stem breakage inside or on the edge of unthinned or lightly thinned coniferous forests in Britain (Gardiner (1999) developed a mechanistic model HWIND to assess wind and snow damage at the edges of Finnish forests.

A modified version of HWIND is also used with an airflow model, wind atlas analysis and application program (WAs P) (Mortensen , 2004) in the WINDA system (Blennow and Sallnas, 2004) for assessing the stand risk in Sweden.

Consequently, such damage has not been studied from the long-term perspective of wind damage risk.

In other words, wind damages in forests were only observed on the basis of location, volume and area in order to determine economic losses (Matsuzaki and Nakata, 1994) and ignored the impact of crop characteristics and local airflow patterns.

The decision trees showed that top height was the most important stand characteristic and provided a critical top height at which silvicultural treatments need to be modified.

If the top height exceeds the critical height, any treatments including thinning should be avoided to minimize wind damage risk.The tools are based on directly linking tree mechanical behaviour and forest airflow to predict stand vulnerability and potential damage risk.Forest Research in Britain has developed a windthrow risk assessment model Forest GALES, which includes a predictor of wind climate named detailed aspect method of scoring (DAMS) (Quine and White, 1993) and a predictor of stand vulnerability named geographical analysis of the losses and effects of storms (GALES) (Gardiner , 2000).A decision support-based approach has been developed in order to help recommend silvicultural treatments for reducing typhoon wind damage in Japanese forests.A case study was conducted on three management scenarios (no thinning, light thinning and heavy thinning) for sugi ( (L.f.) D. The decision support approach integrated models and tools including a mechanistic/empirical wind damage risk assessment model Forest TYPHOON, which includes a modified version of the wind damage risk model, geographical analysis of the losses and effects of storms, and an airflow model, wind atlas analysis and application program.The most destructive weather condition in a particular location is generally observed over a 4- to 6-h period (ESDU, 1987).Typhoons are an unusual wind event compared with normal wind flow.Forest TYPHOON has already been developed and validated using typhoon wind damage data from Himi by Kamimura (2007).The decision support approach was constructed from a growth model Silve-no-Mori, Forest TYPHOON, Arc GIS (ESRI Ltd, Redlands, CA) and the decision tree algorithm CART.Wind damage risk is a serious issue in Japanese forests because of recent typhoon activity and the current condition of the forest estate.The latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Solomon , 2007) notes that tropical cyclones (i.e.


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